Gift of Fire questions p.184-185 3/4/10

4.25) The fire department official has had plenty of experience in fire prevention and his intuition is much faster than having to design a computer model, and with 25 years of expertise, he probably knows as much as anyone could put into a computer model. Also, if something is entered incorrectly into the model, it will be insufficeint, which cannot happen to a human, although there is human error.
The boss, however, is right to say that a computer model will help. When designed correctly, a computer model can predict exactly what will happen to a system, which can be a bit more reliable in a situation in which failure is not an option.

4.27) While the statement itself may be true that 100 separate studies have been performed about the presented issue, technology and knowledge have both grown considerably since the 1960s. Both sceintific knowledge and the ability to create accurate and efficeint models have grown exponentially since the 1960s. Many of the older models are out of date and, compared with today's models, may not be accurate, since there is so much more known about the world near 1993 than in 1960, and the ability to create accurate models has grown since the 1960s. The statement may be accurate, but the data behind the statement probably doesn't support the reality that can be predicted by more contemporary models.

4.29) a.) The program doesn't know how many of the people included in the world population have access to copper, and how many people who may have access to it use it, and how much one uses more than the other. Also, new mines may be discovered, in which the amount of known copper in the world will increase, so the data does not have a good way of knowing exactly how much copper is yet to be discovered. Also, there could be years in which copper is used more and years where it is used much less, and only having the average amount used, the data does not account for these fluctuations. The program cannot predict how people will use this resource each year as technology progresses.
b.) One reason is that people respond to danger in the near future much more dramatically than they respond to danger that can happen in, say, 100 years, a much longer timespan. Another reason is that this report seemed to grab people's attention because it was so threatening, so it probably got a lot of media coverage, which would make it seem more believeable to the average person. Another reason is that to many people, computer models may have seemed new and extremely scientific and absolute, since technology was new and growing at the time.